2021 Breakout Candidate: RHP Aaron Civale
It’s crazy to think that the Cleveland Indians once had Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevenger, and Shane Bieber in the same rotation. Since the departs of Bauer and Clevenger, the Indians look for pitchers such as Aaron Civale, Triston McKenzie, and Zach Plesac to step up. Currently, the rotation looks just about set for 2021, featuring Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac, Aaron Civale, Triston McKenzie, and Logan Allen. This young group of starters must succeed in 2021 for Cleveland to have a shot at the Central.
While Shane Bieber and Zach Plesac are the most talked about when it comes to the Indians rotation, right-hander Aaron Civale has the chance to breakout in the 2021 season. Civale, a 2016 third round selection out of Northeastern, looks to build off of a solid 2020 season. Civale found nothing but success in the minors throughout his career, compiling a 1.4 BB/9 and a 1.10 WHIP in 74 starts. In 2019, Civale shined in 10 big league starts, showing off a 3.40 FIP and a 0.62 HR/9. During last season, Civale had solid campaign, with a 3.40 FIP and only walking 2.5 per 9 innings.
Civale has a well varied pitch mix, which could help him in the future. Currently, he throws a sinker, cutter, curveball, slider, changeup, and rarely a 4-seam fastball. While he doesn’t throw extremely hard, averaging 92 on his sinker, Civale’s spin rates show an opportunity for well above average movement. Civale looks to create movement on his fastballs, throwing a sinker and cutter rather than a traditional 4-seamer.
It seems that Civale’s best pitch is his curveball, with a close second being his slider. Opponents hit just .080 off of his slider and .238 off of his curveball in 2019. Civale currently averages a 2840 rpm spin rate on his curveball, which is one of the best in baseball, and 2709 on his slider. Not only does his breaking stuff have movement, his sinker and cutter were in the 73rd percentile in fastball spin during the 2020 season.
The best part of Civale’s game is the ability to throw the ball where he wants. He had one of the lowest walk rates in 2020, with a minute 5.1%. Unfortunately, Civale makes up for his lack of walks with base hits. In 2020, Civale ranked 5th in singles given up, 4th in doubles, and 2nd in total hits. In order to breakout in 2021, Civale may want to throw less strikes, in an attempt to get hitters to chase. He doesn’t give up many homeruns, but the amount of total hits are an issue. Aaron Civale looks to become one of the Indians’ top pitchers in 2021, and has the ability and tools to do so.
