2021 Breakout Candidate: RHP Tanner Rainey
After the loss of Sean Doolittle, the Nationals gave the closing duties to flamethrower Daniel Hudson for the 2020 season. While Hudson broke out during the 2019 championship season, in 2020, Hudson owned a 6.29 FIP and a 4.79 BB/9. Due to Hudson’s down season and inability to finish games, the Nationals signed LHP Brad Hand to take over the duties for 2021. The back-end of the Nats bullpen has gotten stronger over the past couple of years, adding Will Harris and Daniel Hudson during the 2019 season.
After Harris, Hudson, and Hand, the bullpen falls off. Last season, the Nats’ bullpen combined for a 4.79 FIP, 11.9% walk rate, and a 2.61 HR/9. Daniel Hudson led the league in blown saves, and as a team, the Nationals ranked as the third worst in Average Outs per Game in Relief (Out/GR). Looking toward the future, there is one name that Nats fans will start getting used to, and that is Tanner Rainey.
Tanner Rainey was drafted in Competitive Balance Round B of the 2015 MLB Draft by the Reds. During his first two seasons in the minors, the Reds used Rainey as a starter, but found limited success. In the 2017 seasons, the Reds decided to use Rainey primarily as a reliever. This led to immediate success. While splitting time between High-A and Double-A, Rainey appeared in 53 games, owning a 15.1 K/9 and a 3.19 ERA. The next season, Rainey made his MLB debut, producing a 15.4 BB/9 and a 13.73 FIP in 7 innings.
In December of 2018, Rainey was dealt to the Washington Nationals in exchange for starting pitcher Tanner Roark. As success started to happen more often in 2019, his control haunted him, posting a 7.08 BB/9. Throughout Rainey’s career, limiting walks has been the key to quality innings. Up to that point, Rainey never posted a BB/9 below 4 in any professional season, but 2020 was different.
Tanner Rainey dominated during the 2020 season. Not only did he keep his walks to a record low, he struck out a phenomenal 14.16 hitters per 9 innings. As he showed flashes during previous seasons, Rainey has the stuff to be a dominant closer in the majors. Rainey relies two pitches, a 4-seam fastball and a slider. During the 2020 campaign, Rainey ranked third in Whiff %, showcasing tremendous swing and miss ability. His fastball averages a 2457 spin rate, complimented with the ability to sit 96–100 mph. Rainey’s slider sat around 2407 rpm and produced a 75.5 Whiff %. Rainey gave up zero extra base hits on his slider in 2020, with opponents hitting .050 off of the pitch.
No one is perfect, and Tanner Rainey is no exception. When opponents hit the fastball, they hit it hard. A 1.77 HR/9 and .447 SLG show that he needs to keep the ball in the yard if he wants his fastball to be effective. As 2020 was an outlier, Rainey needs to keep his walks to a minimum. Building off of a strong 2020 will be required for him to be a competitive pitcher.
In conclusion, Tanner Rainey will need to improve on hard contact and his control to be a breakout player in 2021. He has the tools, and showed the ability to do so. To end, here is a reel of Rainey’s nasty pitch mix being effective.
